In a dramatic reassessment of the prospects for renewable energy worldwide, the very erudite International Energy Agency has thrown its usual caution to the winds (ha ha) and upped its expectations of future growth in solar, wind power and bioenergy.
Their 2016 Medium Term Market Report for Renewable Energy, released in the past week, has reversed previous expectations of a slow-down in global renewables deployment, instead forecasting an accelerating market likely to dominate new energy production over the next few decades.
Newspaper headlines shouting “renewables overtake coal” and “solar surge” seem to have welcomed these glad tidings – at last, global energy investors no longer need to deride renewables projects as insignificant but instead will embrace them as the new normal.
I can tell you that at nearly 2000 gigawatts, combined renewable energy power generating capacity (including hydropower) exceeds all other single sources of electricity. Whereas once coal was king (and we feared the pollution from all those dirty power stations in emerging market economies), now we marvel at the two wind turbines going up every hour in China, and half a million solar modules installed somewhere in the world every single day. In terms of actual energy output, renewables supply today about a quarter of world electricity (twice the contribution of nuclear power), and the IEA predicts this will grow to one-third before 2030 and at least half of global power generation by 2050.
Even in the UK, renewables already account for over 25% of electricity production, and a substantial fraction of our national renewable resources is land-based.
I am convinced that harnessing the huge potential of 'agri-renewables' is very much in our national interest, helping to decarbonise Britain's economy, contributing to national energy security, and bringing additional benefits to the environment.
The 13 per cent increase in the IEA forecast over the past year is attributed to a surge of positive government policies around the world, in China, India, USA, Japan, Mexico….if only our own Government were more positive about renewables! NFU members complain to me regularly that their own renewable energy ambitions have been frustrated by political ambivalence over wind turbines or biofuels, by red tape or unhelpful guidance; that Britain will be left behind in the clean energy transition, no longer leading the world but following.
But we have a chance to rectify this: the NFU will be represented at the upcoming COP22 climate talks in Morocco, along with other members of the World Farmers’ Organisation. A number of side events will showcase the wide range of on-farm renewables that are helping to tackle climate change and contributing to what the IEA has called the “transformation of global power markets, led by renewables". The Energy Revolution will not be televised - it will be live, and you can play a part in it.