Published on 26 February the CCC’s (Climate Change Committee) recommendations for the five-year period 2038-42 (around 15 years into the future) promised to take a more sympathetic view of farming and food production than the NFU had found with its Sixth Carbon Budget in 2020.
With a call to effectively “end the fossil fuel age”, the CCC recommends a dramatic 87% reduction in GHG emissions compared with 1990 levels, to a level of around one quarter of what emissions are today (a little over 100 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent per year, vs. 400 MtCO2/year at present).
Having already substantially decarbonised electricity production (historically the biggest source of UK GHG emissions), the expectation is that by the end of the next decade emissions from most other sectors will be also greatly reduced – with the exception of aviation and agriculture, as two parts of the economy for which substitute technologies are limited or problematic.
By the year 2040, GHG emissions from flying and food production are expected to be counterbalanced by UK greenhouse gas removals, mostly land-based in the case of agriculture and mostly engineered removals to offset unavoidable carbon dioxide from aviation fuel use.
NFU President Tom Bradshaw has said that while the report highlights how vital farmers and growers are to a successful transition, cash flow challenges continue to threaten the immediate future of many farm businesses, which is “holding back investment in this area”.
Agriculture and land use
A number of the points the NFU previously submitted last year as evidence to the CCC have been included in its recommendations to government on agriculture and land – such as coupling agricultural emissions to land-based removals, enhancing hedgerows, and supporting new sources of farm diversification income.
The CCC predicts around one third of agricultural emissions reductions by 2040 will come from low-carbon farming practices, and about one fifth from decarbonising machinery – “low-carbon farming practices and technologies, including livestock measures and decarbonising machinery, can achieve a substantial reduction in agricultural emissions”.
“While our goal is the same, the NFU has always had a different view from the CCC on the pathway for agriculture to contribute to the UK’s target.”
NFU President Tom Bradshaw
However, the CCC is saying that reaching net zero across the agriculture and land use sectors will require a reduction in livestock numbers, most notably to free up land to plant trees.
Reduced livestock numbers also cuts emissions by about a third, and is accompanied by a reduction in average meat consumption by 25% by 2040 and 35% by 2050 – these figures are similar to the CCC’s previous modelling for Carbon Budget 6.
NFU offers alternative view to CCC
There is recognition of the short-lived nature of methane. In the CCC’s pathways, the risk around the permanence of land-based GHG removals is counterbalanced against residual agricultural and land use emissions, the majority of which (around 60%) comprise shorter-lived methane emissions.
NFU President Tom Bradshaw responded: “While our goal is the same, the NFU has always had a different view from the CCC on the pathway for agriculture to contribute to the UK’s target. Our newly launched Blueprints for Growth provides multiple solutions to these issues and we ask the government to work with us to deliver these to incentivise investment across the sector.
"Climate change is a global issue and we cannot focus on the UK in isolation; for this reason we cannot conflate consumption and production. There is a growing global demand for nutritious proteins and as we produce some of the most climate-friendly red meat in the world, we should be looking to displace produce from other parts of the world where their production has a greater climate impact.
“Livestock farmers, particularly in the uplands, also play an important role as stewards of some of our most cherished landscapes at the same time as producing home grown food.”
Long-term certainty on public funding needed
Positives in the report include a recognition that “if properly supported by the UK’s Governments, meeting net zero will provide opportunities for farmers and land managers to diversify land use and management and incomes, while continuing to produce food”.
There must be “long-term certainty on public funding” and policy has to “protect against risks of carbon leakage from agricultural imports”. Members of the Citizen’s Panel consulted by the CCC were “concerned about protecting farmers’ livelihoods”.
Out of 43 priority recommendations, only three are specifically for agriculture:
- Publish a Land Use Framework that sets out how land can deliver multiple functions, including for climate mitigation and adaptation, sustainable food production, biodiversity, and wider environmental goals.
- Provide incentives and address barriers for farmers and land managers to diversify land use and management into woodland creation, peatland restoration, bioenergy crops, and renewable energy.
- Provide long-term certainty on public funding for farming practices and technologies which reduce emissions from managing crops and livestock. As part of this, ensure low-regret and low-cost measures are taken up through regulations or minimum requirements in agricultural support mechanisms, especially when they can deliver efficiency improvements.
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